Actuarial science is the discipline that applies mathematical and statistical methods to assess risk in the insurance and finance industries. Actuaries are professionals who are qualified in this field through education and experience. They must demonstrate their qualifications by passing a series of professional examinations.
Actuarial science includes a number of interrelating subjects, including probability and statistics, finance, and economics. Historically, actuarial science used deterministic models in the construction of tables and premiums. The science has gone through revolutionary changes during the last 30 years due to the proliferation of high speed computers and the synergy of stochastic actuarial models with modern financial theory (Frees 1990).
Many universities have undergraduate and graduate degree programs in actuarial science. In 2002, a Wall Street Journal survey on the best jobs in the United States listed "actuary" as the second best job (Lee 2002).
Life insurance, pensions and healthcare
Actuarial science became a formal mathematical discipline in the late 17th century with the increased demand for long-term insurance coverages such as Burial, Life insurance, and Annuities. These long term coverages required that money be set aside to pay future benefits, such as annuity and death benefits many years into the future. This requires estimating future contingent events, such as the rates of mortality by age, as well as the development of mathematical techniques for discounting the value of funds set aside and invested. This led to the development of an important actuarial concept, referred to as the Present value of a future sum. Pensions and healthcare emerged in the early 20th century as a result of collective bargaining. Certain aspects of the actuarial methods for discounting pension funds have come under criticism from modern financial economics.
- In traditional life insurance, actuarial science focuses on the analysis of mortality, the production of life tables, and the application of compound interest to produce life insurance, annuities and endowment policies. Contemporary life insurance programs have been extended to include credit and mortgage insurance, key man insurance for small businesses, long term care insurance and health savings accounts (Hsiao 2001).
- In health insurance, including insurance provided directly by employers, and social insurance, actuarial science focuses on the analyses of rates of disability, morbidity, mortality, fertility and other contingencies. The effects of consumer choice and the geographical distribution of the utilization of medical services and procedures, and the utilization of drugs and therapies, is also of great importance. These factors underlay the development of the Resource-Base Relative Value Scale (RBRVS) at Harvard in a multi-disciplined study. (Hsiao 1988) Actuarial science also aids in the design of benefit structures, reimbursement standards, and the effects of proposed government standards on the cost of healthcare (cf. CHBRP 2004).
- In the pension industry, actuarial methods are used to measure the costs of alternative strategies with regard to the design, maintenance or redesign of pension plans. The strategies are greatly influenced by collective bargaining; the employer's old, new and foreign competitors; the changing demographics of the workforce; changes in the internal revenue code; changes in the attitude of the internal revenue service regarding the calculation of surpluses; and equally importantly, both the short and long term financial and economic trends. It is common with mergers and acquisitions that several pension plans have to be combined or at least administered on an equitable basis. When benefit changes occur, old and new benefit plans have to be blended, satisfying new social demands and various government discrimination test calculations, and providing employees and retirees with understandable choices and transition paths. Benefit plans liabilities have to be properly valued, reflecting both earned benefits for past service, and the benefits for future service. Finally, funding schemes have to be developed that are manageable and satisfy the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB).
- In social welfare programs, the Office of the Chief Actuary (OCACT), Social Security Administration plans and directs a program of actuarial estimates and analyses relating to SSA-administered retirement, survivors and disability insurance programs and to proposed changes in those programs. It evaluates operations of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund and the Federal Disability Insurance Trust Fund, conducts studies of program financing, performs actuarial and demographic research on social insurance and related program issues involving mortality, morbidity, utilization, retirement, disability, survivorship, marriage, unemployment, poverty, old age, families with children, etc., and projects future workloads. In addition, the Office is charged with conducting cost analyses relating to the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program, a general-revenue financed, means-tested program for low-income aged, blind and disabled people. The Office provides technical and consultative services to the Commissioner, to the Board of Trustees of the Social Security Trust Funds, and its staff appears before Congressional Committees to provide expert testimony on the actuarial aspects of Social Security issues.
Actuarial science applied to other forms of insurance
Actuarial science is also applied to short-term forms of insurance, referred to as Property & Casualty or Liability insurance, or General insurance. In these forms of insurance, coverage is generally provided on a renewable annual period, (such as a yearly contract to provide homeowners insurance policy covering damage to a house and its contents for one year). Coverage can be cancelled at the end of the period by either party.
- In the property & casualty insurance fields, companies tend to specialize because of the complexity and diversity of risks. A convenient division is to organize around personal and commercial lines of insurance. Personal lines of insurance are for individuals and include the familiar fire, auto, homeowners, theft and umbrella coverages. Commercial lines address the insurance needs of businesses and include property, business continuation, product liability, fleet/commercial vehicle, workers compensation, fidelity & surety, D&O insurance and a great variety of other coverages a business might need. Beyond these, the industry needs to provide insurance for unique exposures such as catastrophe, weather-related risks, earthquakes, patent infringement and other forms of corporate espionage, terrorism and all its implications, and finally coverage for the most unusual risks which are sometimes "one-of-a-kind" like a satellite launch (Lloyds of London handles many of these hard to gauge risks). In all of these ventures, actuarial science has to bring data collection, measurement, estimating, forecasting, and valuation tools to provide financial and underwriting data for management to assess marketing opportunities and the degree of risk taking that is required. Actuarial science needs to operate at two levels: (i) at the product level to facilitate politically correct equitable pricing and reserving; and (ii) at the corporate level to assess the overall risk to the enterprise from catastrophic events in relation to its underwriting capacity or surplus. Actuaries, usually working in a multidisciplinary team must help answer management issues: (i) is the risk insurable; (ii) does the company have effective claims administration to determine damages; (iii) does the company have sufficient claims handling to cover catastrophic events; (iv) and the vulnerability of the enterprise to uncontrollable risks such as inflation, adverse political outcomes; unfavorable legal outcomes such as excess punitive damage awards, and international turmoil.
- In the reinsurance fields, actuarial science is used to design and price reinsurance and retro-reinsurance schemes, and to establish reserve funds for known claims and future claims and catastrophes. Retro-reinsurance, also known as retrocession occurs when a reinsurance company reinsures risks with yet another reinsurance company. Reinsurance can be used to spread the risk, to smooth earnings and cash flow, to reduce reserve requirements and improve the quality of surplus, Reinsurance creates arbitrage situations, and retro-reinsurance arbitrage can create Spirals which can lead to financial instability and bankruptcies. A spiral occurs (as an example) when a reinsurer accepts a retrocession which unknowingly contains risks that were previously reinsured. Some reported cases of arbitrage and spirals have been found to be illegal. The Equity Funding scam was built on the abusive use of financial reinsurance to transfer capital funds from the reinsurance carrier to Equity Funding. In the broadest sense of the word, reinsurance takes many forms: (i) declining a risk; (ii) requiring the insured to self insure part of the contingent or investment risk; (iii) limiting the coverage through deductibles, coinsurance or exclusionary policy language; (iv) placing a policy in a risk pool with a cohort of competitors to achieve a social objective; (v) ceding or transferring a percentage of each policy to another insurance company (i.e. the reinsurer); (vi) ceding or transferring excess amounts or excess coverages to the reinsurer; (vii) ceding or transferring asset based policies to the reinsurer in exchange for capital; (viii) purchasing stop loss insurance; (ix) purchasing umbrella coverages for a basket of risks; (x) purchasing catastrophe insurance for specific contingent events. Reinsurance is complex. Company management and their actuaries need to deal with all the known insurable contingent events, as well as underwrite the quality of their cedant companies, and maintain the information tools and auditing practices to identify arbitrage and spirals.
